Can Clinton or Obama turn WV an Electoral College shade of blue?

George W. Bush carried West Virginia twice. Can Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama take back the state for the Democratic Party in the presidential election this fall?

The numbers from 2004 indicate it won’t be easy. Not impossible, but not easy.

Here’s why, and it relies on some assumptions. First, most people who voted for Bush in 2004 will at least lean toward John McCain this fall. And it assumes that whether Obama or Clinton wins the Democratic nomination, supporters of the other will still turn out to vote rather than voting for McCain or staying home in protest.

Not counting Ralph Nader and other minor candidates, Bush carried West Virginia four years ago with 56.5 percent of the vote. His winning margin was 97,237 votes. That’s a lot for Obama or Clinton to overcome.

Kerry carried only 9 of West Virginia’s 55 counties. His margin in those counties was 7,971. Those nine counties are traditional Democratic strongholds: Logan, Mingo, McDowell, Boone, Fayette, Webster, Braxton, Marion and Brooke.

Bush carried 21 counties with at least 60 percent of the vote. His margin in those counties was 67,572. So, Clinton or Obama starts with a deficit of 59,601 votes in those 30 counties, which comprise about 45 percent of all voters.

Kerry country had 14 percent of total voters, while the strongest counties for Bush had 31 percent. Kerry received received 56,529 votes in his strongest counties while Bush received 148,472 in his strongest.

In the remaining 25 counties, Bush won by a margin of 37,636 votes. To win West Virginia, Obama or Clinton would need to win those counties by 59,602. To do that, he or she would have to win those counties with 57.2 percent of the votes cast when Kerry picked up only 45.5 percent. The Democrat would need 237,731 votes, compared to the 189,112 Kerry got.

The 25 counties, by the way, are Cabell, Wayne, Lincoln, Mason, Kanawha, Jackson, Taylor, Pocahontas, Gilmer, Mercer, Greenbrier, Ohio, Wyoming, Randolph, Marshall, Roane, Harrison, Calhoun, Clay, Summers, Nicholas, Jefferson, Wetzel, Monongalia and Hancock.

If the Democratic Party wants to win West Virginia this fall, it will have to spend time and money in the more populated areas of the state — mainly in Cabell and Kanawha counties and the counties that border them.

But will we be worth the time and money? Until 2000, we weren’t. But things have changed. As close as the Electoral College votes were in the past two elections, we might be relevant for a third consecutive election.

Or maybe not.

If I'm off base factually, please tell me.