WV in the national election

I was chatting with a former colleague the other day when talk got around to which presidential candidate is likely to carry West Virginia this fall. Now that we're down to two on the Democratic side and two on the GOP, here is how I would guess the election would go if it were today:

Clinton-McCain: McCain
Obama-McCain: Obama
Clinton-Romney: Clinton
Obama-Romney: Obama

In other words, I don't think Romney could persuade enough Democrats here to vote for him, even if he went up against Clinton. McCain and Obama are too much of a mirror image for Democrats to cross over. But McCain could probably take her. And I think Obama is the strongest of the four when it comes to West Virginia voters.

My former colleague thinks West Virginia as a whole is not ready to vote for a black or biracial person. My thinking is that enough people will "pull the rooster," as our senior senator would say, to overcome that way of thought.

Or am I wrong in any of this?