Rust Belt thinking

West Virginia will play a negligible role in this year’s presidential primary process, but it could still be vital to both major party candidates should we have another close election, as we had in 2000 and 2004.

But what about 2012, when whoever is elected this year is likely to run for re-election? Based on an analysis of population trends by Election Data Services and Polidata, two Washington-area demographics firms, the Mountain State will still be necessary in a close election.

According to the firms’ analysis, West Virginia should retain its three seats in the U.S. House of Representatives after the 2010 census is completed and the federal government divides the 435 available seats. Kentucky also should retain its six seats, while Ohio could lose two seats and drop to 16.Among the other states, Texas could pick up four seats, Florida and Arizona two and North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, Utah, Nevada and Oregon one each.

Like Ohio, New York could lose two seats, while Massachusetts, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Illinois, Minnesota, Iowa, Missouri, Louisiana and California could lose one each.

Many of the states that could lose seats are like West Virginia in that their traditional economies have been heavily invested in smokestack industries. West Virginia is striving to be more like the Carolinas, where financial services and newer industries are driving the economy.

At its heart, however, West Virginia remains committed to the old manufacturing economy, even though that’s not coming back. The state cannot shake its anti-business, anti-risk attitude. It has a very hard time accepting new ideas and new ways of doing things.

But let's face this fact: No one is going to build a big steel mill along the Ohio River and employ 3,000 people. Those days are over. But people want those smokestacks to come back, just as some people in Huntington want the city to revert to its 1950s self. That’s not going to happen.

That’s why a couple of items mentioned by Gov. Joe Manchin in his State of the State address on Wednesday could be steps toward joining the newer economy. Manchin’s program includes $50 million for higher education research, which he hopes will grow to an $100 million fund once state money is matched with private donations. He also wants to allocate $30 million for job training centers at community and technical colleges.

Is this realistic, or is it pork? We'll have to wait and see.

One thing is sure. We can’t wait for someone from outside to invest billions in new old-line manufacturing. Success in the future economy depends on intellectual capital. That includes strengthening research efforts at the state’s universities, and it means a well-staffed and adaptable community and technical college system to provide workers with skills the future economy will need.

Will West Virginia as a whole recognize that need? And if we have the resources for job training, will we take advantage of them?

One thing I know. We can't expect to benefit from the new until we're willing to give up some of the old.