Stable

The Census Bureau released its annual population estimates this week. As of July 1, 2007, the bureau estimates the population of West Virginia as 1,812,035, an increase of 3,691, or 0.2 of 1 percent, since the 2000 census.

The further you get from the decenniel census, the less accurate the numbers are likely to be. But let's assume these numbers are correct.

What they tell me is that the state's population is stable. Duh. What they do not show is the distribution of the population. Those come later. But we know from other sources that the population in the Eastern Panhandle and Potomac Highlands is increasing, while the number of people living in the southern coal counties and the Northern Panhandle is decreasing.

The Eastern Panhandle and Potomac Highlands aren't growing because they have an influx of industry. They grow because they are close to areas of Virginia and Maryland that are growing, and people are choosing to live in West Virginia rather than in those two states.

What about political influence? If the Eastern Panhandle and Potomac Highlands (let's call them EPPH) are growing so much, why do coal counties still dominate the Legislature? In part because even with their growth, EPPH still have less than half the population of coal counties.

Here's the breakdown, from 2000 to 2006:

Coal counties -- down 19,097 to 558,193 in Kanawha, Wayne, Boone, Raleigh, Logan, Mingo, McDowell, Wyoming, Fayette and Mercer counties.

EPPH -- Up 34,253 to 246,736 in Jefferson, Morgan, Berkeley, Hampshire, Mineral, Hardy, Pendleton and Grant counties.

I had to go by county rather than parts of counties. Otherwise only parts of Kanawha and Wayne counties would be on the coal counties list. But you get the idea. If you take out Kanawha and Wayne, the coal counties would still be at 324,127, or more than EPPH.

At the present growth rate, you could expect EPPH to catch coal counties (minus Kanawha and Wayne) by the 2020 census. That assumes a flat growth of 5,708 per year in EPPH and a flat decrease of 1,697 in coal counties.

Play with the numbers however you want, but I don't see EPPH overtaking coal in a decennial census before 2020.

Right now, I'll let the political junkies describe how the reapportionment will go in 2011.