Predicting the election

The deadline for letters to the editor pertaining to the Nov. 7 general election has passed, and am I glad. In the past 24 hours, we must have received 100 letters from people endorsing or opposing a candidate or an issue.

We're probably not going to be able to put all of them in the print paper. Some will be Web-only letters.

Judging only from the letters I have received, the park fee will be voted down by a landslide. Jenkins-Scott in the State Senate will be close. Bob Bailey's core supporters will turn out to re-elect him to the Cabell County Commission.

Yesterday, one of our reporters asked me what I thought would happen in the elections for the U.S. Senate and the House of Representatives. He was surprised when I said the Republicans would hold both houses. As I told someone who makes his living in the political arena, I think voters want a change, but I'm not sure they're going to make it this year. 2008 looks more likely, depending on who's at the top of each party's ticket.

Of course, if I was so good at predicting the future, I would be a professional gambler.

UPDATE: On the park fee, here's my reasoning. As a rough guide, figure half of Cabell County voters have Huntington addresses and half have other addresses. As for Wayne County, figure everyone in the park district has a Huntington address. I would guess that the mail on the park fee has run 60-40 against from Huntington addresses, maybe 70-30. From other addresses, it's almost all anti fee. That tells me people who do not live close to a park feel they would get nothing from the $95-a-year fee, so they will vote against it. So that means at best the fee could fail by an 80-20 vote, or 4-to-1 against. This is not a scientific method by any means, but I do believe it shows the sentiment against the fee.