Tuesday

Primaries in Kentucky and Oregon.

Clinton's expected to win Ky. along the same lines as her W.Va. victory. Along with her wins in Ohio and Pennsylvania, it will put her well on her way in her quest to become President of Appalachia.

Obama has a big lead in Oregon and, if he maintains it, will pass the majority mark in delegates, meaning that there is no way under any scenario (even winning 100% of all remaining votes that Clinton can win).

He'll be less than 100 away from the 2,025 needed for nomination.

Looking ahead: A divided house

Even with victories on Ohio and Rhode Island (and likely Texas, as of this writing) tonight, Clinton still can't top Obama in pledged delegates.

The only way she gets the nomination is by taking it to the convention and hoping the superdelegates vote her way.

As Newsweek's Jonathan Alter points out, even under the most optimistic numbers with Clinton winning all remaining states, she can't get a pledged delegate majority without superdelegates.

For all of those who have been trashing me for saying this thing is over, please feel free to do your own math. Give Hillary 75 percent in Kentucky and Indiana. Give her a blowout in Oregon. You will still have a hard time getting her through the process with a pledged-delegate lead.

The Clintonites can spin to their heart's content about how Obama can't carry any large states besides Illinois. How he can't close the deal. How they've got the Big Mo now.

Tell it to Slate's Delegate Calculator.

The next months will be rough. Clinton can't get a "clean" win and the longer she stays in, the harder it will be for Obama to get the amount needed for nomination. He'll still lead, but he may not reach the mark.

Both candidates will then put the nomination in the hands of superdelegates, who will have the choice of ratifying the pledged total for Obama or stepping in on behalf of Clinton.

Tom Brokaw, acting as commentator on MSNBC tonight, said this could be worse than the infamous divided 1968 Chicago convention. He may be right.

The split is very similar, with Clinton representing the establishmnet LBJ/Humphrey wing and Obama carrying the mantle of McCarthy and RFK.

Tom Hayden, one of the leaders of the '68 protests and defendant in the subsequent Chicago 7 trial wrote about this possibility earlier this year.

[...] I would not be surprised to see hundreds of thousands of young Obama supporters silently circling the Denver convention petitioning the party to recognize their historic achievement.

It may not happen that way. But it could.


[...]

By June, Obama needs to be ahead in the total popular vote, the total number of states won, and at least be neck-and-neck in the delegate count. He has to show a significant margin of difference over Clinton in match ups with John McCain. He will have to demand that Howard Dean and the DNC hold firm against the contaminated outcomes in Florida and Michigan.

At some point, perhaps, a pact between the candidates will be possible.

If not, the massive and peaceful pressure for transformation heading into Denver may be unique in the history of American social movements. One generation of reformers, exhausted but still fighting, will have to decide whether power is so important that they are willing to roll over young people no different than themselves three decades ago.

Never underestimate the ability of the Democratic establishment to seize defeat from the jaws of victory.

With a massively unpopular Republican president on his way out, a GOP nominee that turns off the base and a reinvigorated Democratic Party under Howard Dean, this election is the Democrats' to lose.

But Clinton's scorched earth strategy and win-at-all costs campaign may eradicate all of those advantages.

The party now faces the option of nominating Clinton in a win seen by many in the grassroots and youth (who overwhelmingly back Obama) as a "steal" or nominating a potentially-damaged Obama candidacy. Either scenario does not play out well.

It hasn't been reported widely, but polls have shown McCain closing the gap on Obama and building on lead over Clinton.

Could the DLC machine be keeping Clinton, who has no chance of a pledged majority, in the race to sabotage an Obama candidacy? The corporatist wing has controlled the party since 1992 and may not be ready to cede power just yet.

The idea of the Clintons putting personal ambition ahead of loyalty to any cause should surprise no one. This is after all the same people who hired rightwing pollster Dick Morris to devise a strategy for Clinton to co-opt the GOP agenda in the 90s, distance himself from the Democratic leaders in Congress and leave the party twisting in the wind, losing House, Senate and governor's offices while he personally coasted to re-election.

After Wyoming and Mississippi, this thing moves on to Pennsylvania. The Clintons warn that they're just getting started and are ready to go "all the way."

That should send a chill down the spine of anyone hoping for a Democratic win in the fall.

Democratic presidential hopeful Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, D-N.Y. acknowledges supporters during a primary night rally Tuesday, March 4, 2008, in Columbus, Ohio. (AP Photo/Mark Duncan)

--- and the really bad news, regardless of your affiliation, is that Pennsylvania doesn't vote until April 22, so we have to go through this for another month and a half at least.

The other contests tonight

Buried in all of the presidential coverage are two important Congressional races.

The first is Ohio's Dennis Kucinich. The conservative DLC wing of the party has mounted an intense primary challenge to the Cleveland area progressive, outspending him 5-1. The challenge was strong enough to puch his long-shot candidacy out of the presidential race to force him to defend his seat.

City Councilman Joe Cimperman, once a Kucinich admirer, has raised nearly $500,000 and landed high-profile endorsements from the mayor and the city's daily newspaper in a feisty campaign heading into Tuesday's Democratic primary.

He faces multiple opponents in the primary and may benefit from a split in the other side.

On the GOP side, the Texas Republican establishment is mounting a primary challenge to Rep. Ron Paul in the form of Friendswood mayor Chris Peden. No maor polls on this one so far, but Paul, a 20-year Congressman has name recognition and more cash on hand, though his position at odds with the GOP and his district on foriegn policy makes him a target tonight.


Photo: U.S. Rep. Dennis Kucinich, D-Ohio, stands with his wife, Elizabeth, right, after announcing his congressional re-election bid at the Laborers International Union hall in Cleveland in this, Jan. 9, 2008 file photo. (AP Photo/Mark Duncan)

Update: Paul pulled it out and Kucinich was leading as of late Tuesday night.

Three days to go

It looks like Hillary Clinton will be using the classic "Be afraid. Be very afraid" strategy. Take this ad, for instance.

From The Swamp:

FT. WORTH, Texas—Democrat Hillary Clinton made it clear to reporters aboard her campaign plane today that in the final days of the Texas-Ohio delegate spectacular, her focus will remain on portraying herself as stronger than Barack Obama on national security.

Clinton, a New York senator, said now that voters know Sen. John McCain of Arizona is the presumed Republican presidential nominee, they also know what to expect from him—using the GOP playbook to focus on the national security issue. She said that’s why she’s brought it up, in her speeches and a controversial ad, and rejects any charges from the Obama camp that she’s engaged in fear mongering.

“My opponent says it’s fear mongering to talk about national security and the fact that we’re at war,” Clinton told a crowd at the historic stockyards in Fort Worth. “Well, I don’t think people in Texas scare all that easily.”

And on a "completely unrelated in any way whatsoever" note, check out this video of Bill Clinton from 2004:

Winning Ohio

In the latest "Editor's Cut," Ohio's Sen. Sherrod Brown, who ran one of the tightest campaigns in the country last year, talks to The Nation's Katrina Vanden Heuvel about how Clinton and Obama can win the state's upcoming primary.

I will not endorse before the Ohio primary. I'm weighing what my state does, that's certainly part of it. Also, my conversations with both Barack and Hillary, and with Governor Sebelius calling for Barack, and with Bill Clinton calling for Hillary, and Dick Durbin – all the people who have called for them, in addition to talking directly with the candidates… [we] talk about trade, talk about a populist, progressive message in Ohio, talk about privatization and anti-privatization, and all the things they need to do around tax and trade policy.

Photo: Sherrod Brown, Democratic candidate for U.S. Senator of Ohio, campaigns on the steps of the Lawrence County Courthouse on Oct. 31, 2006, in Ironton. Photo by Lori Wolfe/ The Herald-Dispatch

For what they're worth: Ohio polls

Survey USA has a 2/12 poll with Clinton over Obama, 56-39.

A strong lead, but closer than the Feb. 3 Columbus Dispatch poll, which gave her a 23-point lead at 42 over Obama's 19.

Tri-State moving into focus

The New York Times says Ohio will be critical for Clinton:

Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton and her advisers increasingly believe that, after a series of losses, she has been boxed into a must-win position in the Ohio and Texas primaries on March 4, and she has begun reassuring anxious donors and superdelegates that the nomination is not slipping away from her, aides said on Monday.


Mrs. Clinton held a buck-up-the-troops conference call on Monday with donors, superdelegates and other supporters; several said afterward that she had sounded tired and a little down, but determined about Ohio and Texas.