Last polls for Pa.

Via Kos

SurveyUSA.

Clinton 50 (54)
Obama 44 (40)

Rasmussen

Clinton 49 (47)
Obama 44 (44)

In addition, there's one out with Obama in the lead by 3 points (most likely a fluke) and several with Hillary leading by double digits.

As much as I'd love to see Obama pull an upset and win (and finally end this thing), it's unlikely. Clinton has always led in Pa.

The question now is how much does she win by.

As Kos points out:

Note that after Super Tuesday, SUSA gave Clinton a 19-point lead, while Rasmussen gave her a 15-point lead. That was her baseline.

So anything less than that shows a loss of support. And vice versa.

Next stops are North Carolina and Indiana in two weeks (May 6). (We're up in W.Va., along with North Dakota the following week).

Obama is, and has long been, leading in N.C.

Hillary led in Indiana until recently, but the last polls have had Obama up by about 5.

If she wins Pa. by enough of a margin to be viewed as having momentum, then Indiana is her next must-win to even remotely be considered viable for a superdelegate ploy at the convention (though it's still highly unlikely to work out for her).

Photos: AP